Bitcoin (BTC) price could record a bold move soon as the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) narrative conti nues to drive markets. Recent reports indicate the Chinese market flocking to the US investment scene.
Cryptocurrency metrics FAQs
The developer or creator of each cryptocurrency decides on the total number of tokens that can be minted or issued. Only a certain number of these assets can be minted by mining, staking or other mechanisms. This is defined by the algorithm of the underlying blockchain technology. Since its inception, a total of 19,445,656 BTCs have been mined, which is the circulating supply of Bitcoin. On the other hand, circulating supply can also be decreased via actions such as burning tokens, or mistakenly sending assets to addresses of other incompatible blockchains.
Market capitalization is the result of multiplying the circulating supply of a certain asset by the asset’s current market value. For Bitcoin, the market capitalization at the beginning of August 2023 is above $570 billion, which is the result of the more than 19 million BTC in circulation multiplied by the Bitcoin price around $29,600.
Trading volume refers to the total number of tokens for a specific asset that has been transacted or exchanged between buyers and sellers within set trading hours, for example, 24 hours. It is used to gauge market sentiment, this metric combines all volumes on centralized exchanges and decentralized exchanges. Increasing trading volume often denotes the demand for a certain asset as more people are buying and selling the cryptocurrency.
Funding rates are a concept designed to encourage traders to take positions and ensure perpetual contract prices match spot markets. It defines a mechanism by exchanges to ensure that future prices and index prices periodic payments regularly converge. When the funding rate is positive, the price of the perpetual contract is higher than the mark price. This means traders who are bullish and have opened long positions pay traders who are in short positions. On the other hand, a negative funding rate means perpetual prices are below the mark price, and hence traders with short positions pay traders who have opened long positions.
Chinese investors inspire record volumes in US ETF market
Reports by Eric Balchunas, a specialist at Bloomberg Intelligence focusing on exchange-traded funds (ETF), highlight that “Chinese investors are stampeding out of their local market in favor of the US-focused ETFs”. This is seen with spikes in total volume of ETFs traded in China.
Total volume traded for China
According to Balchunas, quotas remain a challenge, as the Chinese are buying in at premiums of up to 43%, which has the government issuing warnings. Quotas are an official limit on the number or amount of purchases allowed.
Nevertheless, Balchunas observes that Chinese traders don’t care about the quotas because the US ETF market is hugely driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO).
China so beat up and US at record highs and then you add on the premium, it becomes selling low and buying high on steroids, feels like it could end in tears for the local China investors.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 6, 2024
It comes as the Chinese markets continue to suffer on the back of a real estate crisis. The situation is so extreme that the country had to tighten its stock market rules in a bid to halt a deepening sell-off in the world’s second-largest economy.
Clear two horse race among 9 new spot bitcoin ETFs…
BlackRock & Fidelity.
That said, *strong* middle class developing in this category.
ARK & Bitwise on path to hit $1bil in not too distant future.
Invesco now over $300mil.
Both Valkyrie & VanEck $100+mil.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) February 5, 2024
Bitcoin price outlook comes into focus as crypto analyst calls for less volatility
Despite BTC ETFs in the US proving popular, Bitcoin price is trading horizontally, absent any directional bias. It is trapped between the centerline and the upper band of the Bollinger indicator at $41,919 and $44,278, respectively.
Although the odds favor the upside, given that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Awesome Oscillator (AO) indicators are in positive territory, the market remains indecisive.
According to @CarpeNoctom, a trader and analyst who examined BTC on the weekly time frame, more volatility contraction is needed before volatility expansion as the weekly Bollinger bands are somewhat spaced out.
The Bollinger indicator is interpreted such that when bands contract, it means volatility is reducing. The reverse is true in that as volatility increases, the bands expand. A significant contraction of the bands with the asset’s price between the upper band and the centerline means the odds favor the upside.
However, if the price of the asset lies between the centerline and the lower band of the Bollinger indicator, the market favors the downside. The volatility expansion follows this dynamic, expanding toward the direction in which the market is leaning.
With the Bollinger indicator traditionally used in the daily time frame, based on the evaluation by @CarpeNoctom, Bitcoin price could record a volatility expansion favoring the upside. The reasoning is that it lies atop the centerline of the Bollinger indicator at $41,919, with the upper band and the centerline coming together, thus showing volatility contraction.
Increased buying pressure could see BTC shatter the upper band at $44,278, potentially extending the gains to the $46,000 psychological level. In a highly bullish case, Bitcoin price could tag $48,000 or extend a neck higher to the $50,000 level. Such a move would denote a 15% climb above current levels.
BTC/USDT 1-day chart
On the flipside, if the bulls show weakness, the bears could seize the market, sending the Bitcoin price below the centerline. An extended fall could see BTC slip to the lower band of the Bollinger indicator at $39,560, marking a foray into the demand zone between $38,496 and $39,895. A break and close below the midline of this order block at $39,196 would confirm the continuation of the fall.
Next logical targets for Bitcoin price in such a directional bias would be $37,800 or, in a dire case, $30,000. A daily candlestick close below this psychological level would invalidate the prevailing bullish outlook.