Why ADA bulls need to fuel up before $1

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  • Cardano price cleared two key weekly hurdles at $0.401 and $0.499 in early December 2023. 
  • It is likely ADA will trade within the $0.499 and $0.689 range until bulls build up enough momentum.
  • A breakdown of the $0.401 will invalidate the bullish thesis for the so-called Ethereum competitor

Cardano (ADA) price rallied 184% between October 19, 2023 and December 12, 2023. This sudden upswing cleared two critical hurdles, which are currently being retested. Going forward, investors can expect ADA to slip into consolidation as bulls recuperate.

Also read: Cardano price could rise 15% as shark and whale wallets resurface

Cardano price likely to move sideways

Cardano price has shed 34% from $0.680, its local top formed on December 12 and currently trades at $0.517. This pullback is obvious considering the massive rally ADA underwent just a few weeks ago and is likely the result of investors booking profits and capital rotation.

As Cardano price cools off, it is likely going to consolidate between the $0.401 and $0.689 range, both of which are key weekly levels. If Bitcoin price does not show signs of improvement, then ADA, for the foreseeable future, could consolidate between the aforementioned levels. 

In some cases, Cardano price might deviate below the $0.401 weekly support level. In this instance, traders need to watch for a quick recovery. If successful, this would be a buy signal before ADA makes a run for the range high at $0.689. This move would constitute a 53% gain from the $0.499 level.

Depending on the build-up of momentum seen between $0.401 and $0.689, Cardano price could eye a flip of $0.689 hurdle into a support floor, opening the path for $1.05. This move would constitute a 134% gain from $0.500.

Read more: Cardano Price Forecast: ADA whales’ resilience might catalyze a 30% recovery rally

ADA/USDT 1-day chart

ADA/USDT 3-day chart

According to Santiment data, the 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) for Cardano is hovering below the zero line, aka the opportunity zone. The 30-day MVRV has recovered from -16.97% to -2.97%, where it currently sits, which means that investors who bought ADA over a month ago are now sitting at a loss of 2.97%. 

This indicator is used to measure the average profit and loss of investors who purchased ADA in the past month. A negative means that the average short-term investor is at a loss and is less likely to offload their holdings and trigger another sell-off. Additionally, long-term investors tend to be buyers when short-term holders are at a loss. Hence, negative MVRV values are often followed by a recovery rally for the underlying asset.

ADA MVRV 30-day

ADA MVRV 30-day

While the consolidation outlook for Cardano price makes sense, breaching the aforementioned range would require a massive momentum build up. If a sudden spike in selling pressure pushes ADA to breach the $0.401 support level and flip it into a resistance level, it will invalidate the bullish thesis. 

This development could further cause Cardano price to spiral nosedive 23% and tag the next key support level at $0.308.


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